Bookmaker odds for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Formula 1 – December 6-8, 2024
A rare case in the outgoing season: bookmakers offer the same odds on the gap of the race winner. Bets on the lead of the first driver at the finish being more or less than 6.9 seconds are at 2.40. A lot of retirements are not expected: the total of finishers over 17.5 is valued at 1.50, while under 17.5 is offered at 2.40.
At the same time, the chances of a safety car deployment are not very high – 2.15, while a race without a safety car is offered at 1.70. You can find more bets on the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Formula 1 on our friends' website, Baltbet.
Prediction for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix race – Yas Marina (12.08.2024)
After 23 races and 6 sprints, the top two teams in the championship, McLaren and Ferrari, are separated by 21 points. Is that a lot or a little? Well, in Abu Dhabi, 45 points are up for grabs, including a bonus for the fastest lap. The situation seems to be roughly 50-50.
Yes, at first glance, the gap is too large to hope for an interesting battle for the title until the very finish of the race. McLaren needs to score 24 points, meaning they need to finish third and fourth, then their competitors won't even benefit from a double finish. On the other hand, remember the race in Austin just a month and a half ago, when Ferrari made up 22 points on the "orange" team all at once. The scenario is not impossible, is it?
Importantly, after the autumn break, not counting the sprints, McLaren has not earned more than 22 points in any of the four Grands Prix: 22 in Austin, 15 in Las Vegas, 12 in Brazil, 17 in Qatar. There is no longer a trace of the MCL38 being the best car from the summer races. McLaren clearly veered off course with their upgrades at the end of the year. And it is unlikely the team will suddenly return to their best form at the season finale: no significant updates are planned, the clever wing with mini-DRS is banned, and Yas Marina likely won't suit the car.
The MCL38 does not favor tracks with slow and medium-speed corners, as well as long straights. Here, mechanical grip from the track comes to the forefront rather than downforce, which is McLaren's main strength. Maximum speed is also not the strongest point of the British team's car. Long sweeping curves, like in Spa and Zandvoort – yes. But at Yas Marina, the characteristics mentioned above are crucial.
Ferrari, on the other hand, should benefit on the track in Abu Dhabi. The SF-24 loves the combination of slow corners and long straights, as seen in Monza, Austin, and Mexico, where Frederic Vasseur’s team has won. There are no high-speed straights that the red car dislikes at Yas Marina. So in a sense, the teams in the Constructors' Cup have two different car philosophies.
Everything indicates that Ferrari will be faster than McLaren at the finish on Sunday. And here arise two questions: will Scuderia be able to take advantage of this edge over their main competitors, and what will the rivals from Red Bull Racing and Mercedes say, who have gained momentum towards the end of the season and won the last three races?
Here, to be frank, there is total unpredictability. Ferrari can make a mistake out of nowhere, like in Singapore, where Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc made errors in qualifying and lost chances for high positions in the race. And Red Bull and Mercedes can at times spring up literally from nowhere. Who expected the Silver Arrows to dominate in Las Vegas after a series of races without podiums and Red Bull Racing's victory in Qatar following Max Verstappen's seventh place in the sprint? But that makes it all the more interesting...
Bets on the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Formula 1 – December 8, 2024
The 2024 season finale in Formula 1 will be exciting, despite the seemingly large point gap between McLaren and Ferrari. The "oranges" do not appear to be the favorites at the Abu Dhabi stage due to the decline and characteristics of their car, while the "reds" can produce one of their best performances of the season if they avoid mistakes. And Red Bull Racing, along with Mercedes, might also step in and seize important points, tipping the balance for one side or the other.
Predicting the winner of the Constructors' Championship in such conditions is impossible, but at the same time, it equalizes the chances for Ferrari and McLaren, nullifying the 21-point gap. So why not take a risk and consider a bet on the nominal underdog in this battle?
Prediction: Ferrari will win the Constructors' Cup at 5.80